Among the various and sundry peripherals you might connect to your new Mac, a modem seems relatively benign. I mean, it’s not as if it represents a new technology, and the only reason you need to buy one these days is because Apple has decreed that we all should have broadband access. And that’s in the same fashion is they decreed we didn’t need floppy drives back in 1998 when the iMac first came out.

The built-in modem’s disappearance isn’t something that was given wide publicity at Apple’s site, but when you see Apple USB Modem among the build-to-order options, prepare to spend that extra $49 if you still have dial-up Internet access or want to fax from your Mac. Regardless of the wisdom of such a decision, I’ve had occasion to work with a couple of these devices in recent days, and, when I read the user comments at Apple’s online store, I found myself wondering what the fuss is all about.

It’s not as if installation requires any special skills. In fact, the multilingual manual devotes all of four pages to the subject. Just plug one end into a free USB port, connect the other end to a phone line, and open the Network preference panel in 10.4.3 or later to verify that a new port has been detected. Then you can go ahead and set it up to make your connections.

The basic specs are straightforward. This is an ordinary V.92 modem that supports up to 56K connections and a few extras, such as Caller ID, wake on ring, telephone answering (V.253) and modem on hold. It is, for all practical purposes, not noticeably different from the internal modem included on Macs shipped in recent years. In regular use, it operates in the same fashion and manages both Internet connections and, of course, faxing, such as it is under Mac OS X, with decent reliability. At least that’s what I observed in my brief tests with the product. And, no, it doesn’t require any special drivers or software, though I’d take that 10.4.3 requirement seriously, because it’s quite possible older Mac OS X versions might not recognize it properly.

On the other hand, I do have some objections to the device, and it’s not the modest purchase price. I think Apple’s decision to ditch the standard modem is a tad premature. Even if you do have broadband, what if you just want to send faxes from your Mac as I do from time to time? What about the loss of one of your USB ports? Well, at least companies that make USB hubs will no doubt be delighted at the turn of events. No, folks, I don’t think it’s necessarily a plot to deprive you of what used to be an essential component of your Mac and give Apple some extra income.

However, moving past the political considerations, this modest looking device sure looks inoffensive enough, but the reviews at Apple’s site are decidedly mixed. Some users are simply upset over having to buy what used to standard equipment, one calling it a “bummer,” dinging the fact that it adds an appendage to a Mac, but praising the fact that it’s simple to set up and works just fine. Another customer lies at the opposite end of the universe complaining that “Yes it’s cute but having spent hours trying to figure out how to configure and use it, I’d say LOOKOUT!”

Well, it’s not as if the instructions are particularly vague. I suppose if one isn’t the type to read such things, the fact that it establishes a new port, External Modem, might be confusing, although it’s perfectly logical. I can also see where faxing might, until you get it, present a confusing set of choices, because Internal Modem and, if it’s installed, Bluetooth, will lie among your choices. But otherwise? Not that I can see.

Pouring through those comments, other users complained about the inability to maintain a proper connection, or use their third party fax software. Again, I wonder if the simple setup instructions were ever followed, and that’s something that readily apparent in comments of this nature. I worry, however, about someone who spends hours trying to get a handle on using the device when it’s all spelled out in a few short pages of text.

In response to such installation and performance headaches, another customer proceeded to sing the modem’s praises, writing, “Simplicity itself! I’m a first time user of Mac OSX but found the installation of this product a piece of cake and have had no problems with the device hanging up.”

Of course, if you don’t like Apple’s variation on the USB modem theme, I suppose you could consider the alternatives from such companies as Best Data and Zoom. But they aren’t any cheaper or easier to install, and they make for much larger appendages. And, no folks, I don’t think Apple is going to restore internal modems now or ever.

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All the bad news from Microsoft appears to indicate the company has its share of problems. In fact, this has been a perfectly awful week for the house that Bill Gates built.

First there’s the news that the consumer version of Windows Vista will miss its holiday shipping deadline, and won’t be out until 2007. PC box makers are going to have to find something else to sell their products, and don’t be surprised if they take the hit and offer ultra-cheap or free Vista upgrades for folks who buy a new computer for the holidays.

Second, Microsoft reorganizes its Windows unit, and you can bet that’s a strong public statement, regardless of the spin, that things have gone terribly wrong in its operating system arena. It’s also meant to reassure everyone, including Wall Street, that the company will somehow get its act together. Of course, whether anyone believes it is another matter entirely.

And, as might be expected, the forthcoming Office 2007 gets a late slip too, and this will supposedly allow for a simultaneous release of both products. Of course, missing the critical holiday season no doubt means that Microsoft will need to ramp up the Xbox publicity machine, to divert your attention and surely to compete with Sony’s PSP 3, which will be in full bloom by then. That is, unless Sony, too, is beset with still another delay.

Meantime, in this corner is Apple Computer with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to gain a huge amount of market share at the expense of Microsoft. It’s not, of course, as if lots of businesses will all suddenly desert the Windows platform and buy new Macs, even if the technique to dual-boot both operating systems has be greatly simplified by then. That’s a market that will provide only modest support for the Mac and, as usual, largely in the creative departments. When it comes to consumers, however, it’ll be a different story, and here Apple might have the entire field largely to itself, even if PC makers fall over themselves offering deals to get the Vista upgrade, whenever that really ships.

As a practical matter, you might expect that Apple will want to shorten its Leopard development time, and that Steve will get the troops in line to get it out in some decent form by late October or early November. But will it even be possible? Bear in mind that the WWDC won’t occur until August, and developers are going to want a reasonable amount of time to absorb the changes in 10.5 and get to work bringing their products in line. No doubt there will have to be special kits to allow developers to harness the new features in their own products and forcing them to add support within a couple of months will be no mean trick. Lest we forget, many will still be trying to get their Universal upgrades out the door.

Yet, most of the heavy lifting of Mac OS X has already been done, and it may well be that Apple can no concentrate on packing on new and improved features without affecting the basic plumbing. That means that the need for major updates won’t be necessary. Just about anything that runs properly on Tiger will run on Leopard, and if that’s the case, as many hope, it won’t matter if there’s a very short window of opportunity. Now that would be a statement that’ll get loud cheers, because it’ll provide reassurance to developers that they don’t have to do a thing to ensure full Leopard support

Remember, also, that all new Macs will be shipping with Intel processors by then. In fact, you may likely see second generation versions of the MacBook Pro, iMac and Mac mini, since Intel makes frequent and very public updates to its chips. There will be plenty of stuff to sell for the holidays, and having all that gear ship with a brand new version of the Mac OS will be the icing on the cake. At the same time, Apple won’t have to confront the Windows marketing machine head on. It’ll have the field for itself.

But there is one potential downside here, regardless of whether Leopard ships before the end of the year or not, and that’s whether people truly care about operating systems these days. This is a point I’ve raised before. While Microsoft will probably have a harder time persuading its customers to upgrade to Vista, at least until there’s plenty of vetting time to check for serious bugs and other issues, it won’t be a cake walk for Apple.

I mean, how often do you really want to spend $129 for Mac OS upgrades, when the one you’re using runs perfectly fine now? Sure, Apple has slowed its operating system development process to a more reasonable level. I’m even sure that it will graft some awesome features onto Leopard to entice you to buy a copy. But, other than getting it on a new Mac, will you just decide you are perfectly content with Tiger for now?

On the other hand, Apple will probably be too busy selling iPods and other consumer electronics gear to care.

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The excuses really aren’t very important, but the end result is. Microsoft has admitted that its long-delayed operating system upgrade, Windows Vista, will miss another deadline, this time the crucial Christmas holiday season; that is, except for volume licensing customers who are far less likely to upgrade. No doubt, PC box makers will be disappointed, because they won’t be able to bank on that half a billion dollars Redmond has budgeted to promote its new release, and they will have to fend for themselves.

To be sure, the promised delivery date, January, is bad for the industry. Assuming it’s met, which is not a given considering the way things have gone so far, it’ll be during a quarter when sales in the industry tend to be at their lowest. Of course that might work to Microsoft’s benefit, because of early release bugs become serious, it’ll give them time to fix them without doing a whole lot of damage.

But where does all this leave Apple? When Steve Jobs first mentioned the next upgrade to Mac OS X, code-named Leopard, he said it would appear during the latter part of 2006 or early in 2007. With the delay of the WWDC until August, I was willing to believe that the latter would be closer to the mark. Now, in fact, it may very well be that Leopard will appear just around the same time as Vista, creating the climate for a battle royal to gain operating system ascendancy in the public mindset. But I’ll get to that possibility shortly.

Of course, by then, Apple’s journey to the Intel side of the processor wars will be over, and second generation products will be ready. It’s also likely that key Mac applications that are currently on the sidelines will have made their trip to Universal binaries, so existing with Rosetta emulation will not be as critical a factor as it is today. In fact, I fully expect that Adobe’s job will be done as far as its Creative Suite is concerned, and that Microsoft will, at the very least, have announced the next version of Office for the Mac. Maybe we’ll even see a possible version 8 of Virtual PC, offering a way to run Windows on a MacIntel with most of the performance of the regular version on a PC. By then, the techniques for dual booting Windows on a Mac will have been simplified so that it doesn’t take a whole lot of arcane instructions to make it happen.

In any case, the latest Vista delay gives Apple more options. Depending on the state of Leopard development, it is always possible it will really appear in time for the holiday season, which means Apple will have the market for itself, assuming it isn’t just going to talk about the latest iPods. The real problem is that it’s not 1995 anymore, so plugging a new operating system isn’t really as important as it used to be. Far from it. Today, computer users are largely concerned with other things, such as their digital lifestyle, and the applications they need to run to get their work done.

You see, I really believe that both Apple and Microsoft will encounter one significant problem, which is how to sell upgrades to customers who have grown accustomed to the way their computers work right now. Sure, the Windows platform is overrun with virus infections, spyware and all the rest, but will customers really want to cope with the uncertainties of Vista, even if it is supposedly a whole lot more secure? It may very well be that it’ll just make malware authors more creative in finding the inevitable security leaks and exploiting them. Whatever anyone tells you, no operating system is totally secure, and Vista, at best, will simply make it more like Mac OS X and other Unix-based operating systems in closing additional doors to potential harm.

The real problem Microsoft faces is that many businesses are actually still using Windows 2000, and do not even regard XP as a great enhancement. Of course, they will inevitably upgrade, but it’s not so simple on the other side of the tracks. Most Mac OS X upgrades involve just a few clicks of the mouse, and sitting back while the installer does its thing. Things do go wrong from time to time, but not very often. The reason you hear about it at troubleshooting sites is that people with problems are far more vocal about them. People who have no problems at all just get back to work and worry about more mundane pursuits, such as paying the bills, feeding the family and the rest.

Here Apple will likely confront a serious problem, and that is to show that Leopard is really a compelling upgrade to Tiger, one that Mac users can’t ignore. Of course they’ll get 10.5 anyway, when they buy new Macs that ship with the upgrade preloaded. But otherwise, what will Leopard offer that Tiger lacks? So far, the rumors haven’t been very enticing. All we’re hearing about, so far, is a faster Finder, maybe a few more frills and better integration with Spotlight. There’s talk of a telephony application, and enhancements in the user interface, individual features and perhaps the standard under-the-hood stuff to make everything run more efficiently. System administrators will no doubt appreciate the expected Universal installer, so they can deploy single disk images over a mixed network of PowerPC and Intel-based Macs.

But will there be enough eye candy to make you want to spring for another $129 for the upgrade? By the time Leopard arrives, Tiger will be from a year-and-a-half to two years old, so maybe you’ll be anxious to try something new. Or maybe you’ll just be content to leave well enough alone, and that’s something Apple wouldn’t like, because it’ll then face the same dilemma that’ll confront Microsoft whenever it gets Vista out the door.

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