I suppose I shouldn’t be ragging on people who deliver expert opinions, since the name itself is probably an oxymoron. On the other hand, it’s interesting to look over what happened through 2006 when it came to the Apple universe, just to see where folks failed to deliver an expectations.

I suppose the biggest issue was the migration to Intel processors, because it proceeded at a breathtaking speed, much faster than Apple promised, and how often does a tech company fulfill its promises?

This time last year, the expert opinion had it that the very first Mac to attain Intel-inside status would be the Mac mini, but the available chips, the first of the Core Duos, worked best in the iMac and what became the MacBook Pro. In this case and throughout the year, a lot of what you saw was actually dictated by Intel’s production schedule and how quickly they could get chips in sufficient quantities to the marketplace.

In short, you didn’t have to be an expert to come up with an informed opinion.

So you could pretty well telegraph what Apple would do and when. For example, when the new dual-core Xeons appeared, speculation mounted that they would fine a home in the widely-expected replacement for the Power Mac. With MacBooks and a MacBook Pros in circulation, you just knew the new model would be called a Mac Pro. Steve Jobs telegraphed the direction of using the word “Mac” in all of Apple’s computers when the PowerBook vanished for good, even though some folks thought the new names were rather clumsy.

But when you look at the moniker of a typical PC, Mac Pro flows rather well from your mouth. However, I do admit that I still tend to refer to my MacBook Pro as a PowerBook, as does my wife. Old habits die hard.

Suggestions that Apple would deliver brand new form factors to coincide with the new internal workings were also dashed when no such thing happened. Instead, the new models, from the outside at least, looked extremely close to the ones they replaced. In other words, they looked like Macs, despite the fact that they contained parts from Intel. While it’s fair to say they are ideal form factors and there’s little reason to simply change them without good reason, it also works well from a psychological standpoint. The long-time Mac user doesn’t have to confront any difference, other than the fact that their new computer is a lot faster than the old one.

Over the year, every time you heard news about a proof-of-concept Mac virus or an Apple security update of one sort or another, you could hear the “experts” ranting about how Mac OS X would seem be inundated with malware. The security software companies selling Mac products would jump into the fray to sell a few more copies, but that’s to be expected. I’m more concerned about the so-called informed opinions from people who became what appeared to be fear merchants.

Yes, there will be Mac viruses that’ll spread into the wild, but the fundamental architecture of Mac OS X will make them less harmful than the ones on the Windows platform. For the sake of the millions of businesses who exist on Windows, let’s just hope that Vista will be more resilient than XP, but there are already inklings that it’s just not so. But I’m not going to go there, as I don’t want to become a fear merchant as well.

Of course, when it comes to experts, Wall Street can fail with the best of them. Every single quarter, they delivered sales expectations that Apple surpassed. How often did you hear of a deep stall in Mac sales because you were waiting on the sidelines for the Intel versions of new hardware? Yes, it did happen to some extent, but not enough to keep Mac sales from soaring.

When it came to the iPod, you almost felt that some analysts wanted it to fail, as they claimed there were rumblings in the sales channels that sales had stalled there as well, although it never really happened. So maybe the Zune player would succeed after all.

While I don’t pretend to know what’s been happening during the holiday season, it’s also clear the Zune was a non-starter, and the few stores I checked had an awful hard time keeping iPods in stock. In other words, whatever Apple has shipped so far this year, they could probably have shipped still more if only stocks were available, but don’t take my casual analysis as anything beyond an anecdotal remark.

For 2007, you’ll hear more expert views on the Apple universe. An Apple mobile phone is already at the top of the list, and I’ve already weighed in on that score more than I care to for the moment. There are also suggestions that there will be new directions in the design of future Macs going forward, now that the processor migration issues have been resolved. Or maybe not.

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I realize some of you readers might consider myself an expert of one sort or another — and some of you even believe I present myself in that fashion. But I don’t really consider myself an expert in anything. Instead, I try to distill, evaluate and present information in a way that most people will understand, either in print or on radio. So call me a communicator, although I can’t say that I’m an expert in that category either.

In any case, in the next couple of weeks, you will read some so-called expert opinions about what Apple should do, will do, can do and shouldn’t do with its new products for 2007. First, there will be more predictions about what might happen at Macworld San Francisco. Alas, with expectations rising to a fever pitch and beyond, whatever Steve Jobs does announce will be a disappointment.

Take the iPod phone, formerly the iPhone until Linksys came out with a product line bearing that name. If no such thing is ready in January, Apple’s stock price will take a hit. If it isn’t quite what people expect of it, which is the seamless integration of music, telephony, contact management and whatever else you want in a phone, it’ll be a tragic disappointment. Apple has to get it perfect the first time or forget about it. Either way, they’re between the rock and the hard place.

What about a video iPod? A real one, with larger screen filling the entire device, and virtual navigation controls on the unit itself. It can’t be a pretender, because the experts will say it’s not good enough to combat the growing digital playing gadget competition from Microsoft and others.

Sure, Microsoft’s Zune is a warmed-over Toshiba, with software derived from the latest version of Windows Media Player. In other words, it was a rush job to get something out for the holiday season — something, anything, since the PlaysForSure makers fell down at the job of competing with Apple on their own merits. None of this matters, because Microsoft says it’s in it for the long haul and will learn from its mistakes with Zune 2.0 and Zune 3.0 or whatever.

It doesn’t matter that people are not as likely to give a company a second chance when the first opportunity ends in failure. Don’t confuse the expert with logic.

As to the Macs themselves, well Apple upgraded most everything in recent months, so I expect the best you can hope for, other than major new form factors — such as a “light” MacBook — would be a version of the Mac Pro with four-core processors. That’s not too much of a stretch, since the newest members of the Intel Xeon family are out now, and people have already replaced their processors unofficially, so this is no big deal. In fact, Apple doesn’t have to upgrade any hardware. All they have to do is add an option to check off when you customize a Mac Pro.

Indeed, you don’t have to be an expert to arrive at that particular conclusion, so I can do it without much fear of contradiction. In fact, I’d be surprised if no such option is offered. What’s more, I expect you’ll see some spiffy new features that will be forthcoming in Mac OS 10.5 Leopard, and perhaps a real shipping date. But, no, there’s no chance it’ll arrive in January, despite what some suggest. I don’t have any specific knowledge, of course, but I can read the tech tea leaves as well as anyone.

I suppose there is plenty of room for Apple to amaze us, and deliver something unexpected. At the same time, you shouldn’t believe what the experts tell you when it comes to what Apple should do and how they do it. The company has prospered so far in recent years without outsiders telling them what to do. In fact, they quite often do the opposite.

Of course, that doesn’t sit well with the experts. I don’t think any of them have sat atop a multinational corporation, nor have they shepherded the design and release of successful consumer products. So they can talk about this all they want, but what about the practical experience of doing the tasks they criticize others about.

This isn’t to say that tech journalists and analysts must all be former executives or design engineers with companies in the fields they cover. If these were among the requirements, pitifully few would qualify. But they should put a sharp, critical eye on the experts they quote to see if they have the credentials to deliver an informed opinion. And if they choose to deliver an opinion themselves, present it with the proper qualifications.

Yes, I do spent a lot of time telling you about the things I like and do not like about a product or a company’s policy. I speak as a consumer — one that I hope is informed — and not as someone who could replace the people who build those products. At the same time, my hard-earned money is as good as anyone’s, so that gives me the right to complain when I think there’s a reason to do so. But don’t assume I know any more than you do.

Related Articles:

• Does Apple Need an Information Czar?
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• Apple Hosts Special Event on Night Owl’s Birthday
• Newsletter #457 Preview: No, Apple Isn’t Going Downhill
• Apple Is Releasing Products Too Early!